https://belarustoukraine.com/ Tracking Minsk's role in the war next door en Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:24:18 GMT https://belarustoukraine.com/five-scenarios-belarus-direct-combatant/ https://belarustoukraine.com/five-scenarios-belarus-direct-combatant/ Belarusian troops have stayed out of direct combat so far — but the buffers keeping them on the sidelines are thinner than they appear. From staged incidents to accidental escalation, here are the five pathways analysts in Washington and Brussels are watching most closely. Belarus to Ukraine Security & Defense Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:05:11 GMT https://belarustoukraine.com/rethinking-minsk-calculus-russia-ukraine-war/ https://belarustoukraine.com/rethinking-minsk-calculus-russia-ukraine-war/ Washington's sanctions architecture still treats Belarus as a mere extension of the Kremlin. A closer reading of Lukashenko's behavior suggests a more self-interested actor — one whose survival instincts create openings, and risks, that US policymakers have yet to fully price in. Belarus to Ukraine Opinion & Analysis Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:05:11 GMT